Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates
Monday, April 27th, 2009
First quarter vacancy rates increased across the four core property types. The drivers of demand for each property type, though slightly different, all weakened in response to the recession. Commercial real estate leasing activity tends to lag the broader economy, meaning that if the economy begins a tepid growth cycle by the end of 2009 (by no means a certainty), commercial real estate may not follow until perhaps the second half of 2010 or 2011. Among the core property types, retail has been hit hardest because the loss of housing and stock market wealth, tighter credit, job losses and households’ newfound propensity to save have cut into retail sales. Ironically, this segment, along with the industrial market, may be the first to turn around due in part to the stimulus package, much of which will support consumer spending either directly through tax cuts and jobless benefits or indirectly through spending programs that will encourage job retention. Because the labor market may be the last economic indicator to recover, the office and apartment markets, which rely on job creation to stimulate tenant demand, may bottom out somewhat later.
Source: Reis, Grubb & Ellis
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned since last September because it has implemented several programs to combat the credit crisis. With the target federal funds rate as low as it can go – in a range of zero to one-quarter percent – the Fed has turned to “quantitative easing” including enhanced levels of liquidity for financial firms, direct lending to borrowers and investors, purchases of high-quality assets such as Treasury securities, and support for troubled institutions such as Bear Stearns and AIG. These programs intersect with commercial real estate at a couple of levels. The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), although off to a slow start, may be extended to cover commercial mortgage-backed securities if it can be modified to accommodate the longer terms typical of CMBS loans. The rapid expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet raises the specter of inflation; this could work to the advantage of commercial real estate, which traditionally has been viewed as a hedge against inflation. However, inflation may not become a problem unless the economy bounces back quickly, which doesn’t seem likely. A gradual recovery would, in theory, give the Fed a window to sell off its assets at an orderly pace, thereby removing excess liquidity from the economy before inflation has a chance to accelerate.