Grubb & Ellis Montana Commercial, LLC

A local friend of ours introduced us to a website that has myrtle beach golf packages. With this site you can book golfing and lodging and get great discounts. Hopefully we can head over there before the weather gets too cold.  There are 100’s of golf courses in the myrtle beach area to chose from

Might be a great place for a sales meeting coming soon!

Office for Lease in Big Sky: Office for Lease – 32 Market Place Dr. Suite 6 – Big Sky, MT

Click to talk about the Ramada

Six-Pack of Good News

1. The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators increased 0.7 percent in June, its third consecutive monthly gain and the sharpest three-month rise since 2003. The index is a weighted average of 10 key variables designed to forecast economic conditions six to nine months in advance. The latest reading is a clear sign that the recession is drawing to a close.
2. Dismal Scientist, part of Moody’s Economy.com, identified 23 metro areas where the recession is moderating. Click here to view the list and read the article.
3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended yesterday above 9000 for the first time since early January thanks in part to a $2.3 billion quarterly profit reported by Ford Motor Company. Although the profit was attributable to debt restructuring, Ford stock rose 9.4 percent on the news.
4. Existing home sales rose 3.6 percent in June, the third consecutive monthly increase and the longest string of gains since 2004. Condo sales increased by 14 percent while single-family sales gained 2.5 percent.
5. Last month Goldman Sachs repaid the $10 billion it received in TARP funds, and now the company has paid $1.1 billion to repurchase the stock warrants issued to the U.S. Treasury. Taxpayers made an annualized return of 23 percent. Click here to read an article from The Associated Press.
6. THE RECESSION IS OVER… in Canada, reports the Bank of Canada. Click here to read the article in The Globe and Mail.

Robert Bach

SVP, Chief Economist

Grubb & Ellis

Length of Recent Recessions & Jobless Recoveries

With an end to the recession in sight, the strength of the recovery is the next big topic of discussion. Most analysts expect a tepid rebound, and recent history supports this outlook. The term “jobless recovery” came into usage after the 1990-91 recession to describe the condition where GDP was growing but not fast enough to encourage businesses to hire. Payroll employment languished after that recession ended, failing to rise above even its end-of-recession level for another 14 months. Employment did not surpass its pre-recession peak for another nine months after that. The jobless period lasted even longer following the 2001 recession, with employment failing to rise above its end-of-recession level for 29 months. It was another 10 months after that before employment rose above its pre-recession peak. If recent history is any indication, commercial real estate leasing conditions will be moribund for at least the next year and probably longer, particularly given the risk-averse credit markets. However, employers are running their businesses at very lean levels, having been quick to cut both inventories and payrolls beginning last September when the credit markets nearly shut down. Labor productivity remains unusually strong for a recession, and second quarter corporate profits were surprisingly resilient. This raises the possibility that even a modest increase in demand could prompt employers to resume hiring, which would shorten the jobless recovery and hasten a true labor market recovery – a hopeful outcome for commercial real estate. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Grubb & Elllis

Bob Bach is our Senior Vice President, Chief Economist