Good News Friday
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
October 2, 2009
The economic news has been mixed recently. In the marquee data release of the week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that employers shed 263,000 net payroll jobs in September while the unemployment rate increased one-tenth of a percent to 9.8 percent, its highest level since June 1983. Job losses of any magnitude are not good news, but there are some mitigating factors:
- Monthly data fluctuate and are subject to revisions. On a quarterly basis, the trend continues to be in the direction of reduced losses: -691,000 in the first quarter of 2009 versus -428,000 in the second quarter and -256,000 in the third quarter.
- The health care sector, a subset of education and health services, remains a bright spot, adding 19,200 jobs. Since 1990, the sector has suffered a net job loss in only one month (July 2003).
- As of mid-morning, stock and oil prices are down while bonds are rallying. A sluggish labor market recovery, though painful for Main Street, helps keep the pressure off of interest rates, oil prices and inflation.
Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis